I appreciate your transparency. I think your growth rates are too optimistic though, especially the 10% growth in year 4. I also think your assumption of 20% ROIC is too optimistic as well - competition will compress this.
Personally, I think bear case is negative mid SD rev growth; base case is low SD (e.g. 1-3%) and bull case would be 4-5%. You could then to a probabilistic expected value calculation to get the fair value.
I appreciate your transparency. I think your growth rates are too optimistic though, especially the 10% growth in year 4. I also think your assumption of 20% ROIC is too optimistic as well - competition will compress this.
Personally, I think bear case is negative mid SD rev growth; base case is low SD (e.g. 1-3%) and bull case would be 4-5%. You could then to a probabilistic expected value calculation to get the fair value.
Time will show 😉. Keep in mind that I am using average analyst estimates and industry prospects for growth, I don't invent it myself.